Matchup / REG
Season 2026 / Week 4
NE at BUF
AwayNew England PatriotsOpen team ->at
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
Highmark Stadium
HomeBuffalo BillsOpen team ->Personnel matchup
Current personnel view unavailable
Current Team personnel could not be verified for both sides of this matchup.
matchup_personnel_team_products_unavailable
Historical play-calling
NE
New England Patriots
Pass leanPass 58%
Rush 42%
- Pace
- 64.8 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.038
BUF
Buffalo Bills
Pass leanPass 57%
Rush 43%
- Pace
- 64.7 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.035
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 4 projection
BUF holds the projected offensive edge
+0.120EPA/play gap
Through Week 3
-0.004
EPA/play
22% current evidence · 178 plays
+0.116
EPA/play
23% current evidence · 180 plays
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
BUF
+0.165
EPA/play advantage over NE
Recent series
Even 3–3
Series record
+0.2
Avg margin · NE
6 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
moderate · calm wind
65°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
Comparable-condition team performance is not available for this matchup.
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
- Ed OliverINA
RDE · current depth rank 1
- T.J. SandersINA
LDE · current depth rank 1
P · current depth rank 1
Official weekly report
No official Week 4 injury entries were reported.
Roster designations and official weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels come from separate sources.
Projected focal points
- Drake Maye
QB · projected passing yards
7,186.467 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- TreVeyon Henderson
RB · projected rushing yards
1,358.3 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Kayshon Boutte
WR · projected receiving yards
1,154.394 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- Josh Allen
QB · projected passing yards
6,781.867 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- James Cook
RB · projected rushing yards
2,713.558 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Khalil Shakir
WR · projected receiving yards
1,379.975 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
Some supporting sections are not currently available.
Season Pass matchup briefing
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Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
Market fields are not yet reported.
Market as-of time was not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule. Model and Analyst evidence is shown only after access, freshness, identity, and publication checks pass.
- Matchup
- NE at BUF
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported
- Analysis status
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