Scheduled / REG
Season 2026 / Week 1
TB at CIN
AwayTampa Bay BuccaneersOpen team ->at
Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
Paycor Stadium
HomeCincinnati BengalsOpen team ->Personnel matchup
On-field personnel
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense
3WR 1TE
Cincinnati Bengals defense
Base 4-3 D
Historical play-calling
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pass leanPass 56%
Rush 44%
- Pace
- 63.9 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- -0.004
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
Pass leanPass 56%
Rush 44%
- Pace
- 64.2 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.009
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 1 projection
TB holds the projected offensive edge
+0.074EPA/play gap
Preseason model
No 2026 games
+0.128
EPA/play
+0.054
EPA/play
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
TB
+0.082
EPA/play advantage over CIN
Recent series
No recent series edge is available.
0 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
warm · calm wind
80°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
2023–2025
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
medium sample confidencePass response
+0.050
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
-0.010
EPA/play vs team normal
7 comparable games · 469 offensive plays
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals
low sample confidencePass response
+0.003
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
+0.020
EPA/play vs team normal
4 comparable games · 232 offensive plays
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
No current depth-rank-one player carries a non-active roster designation.
Official weekly report
Official Week 1 injury reports are not open yet.
Current roster designations above are not weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels.
Projected focal points
- Baker Mayfield
QB · projected passing yards
3,139.05 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Emeka Egbuka
WR · projected receiving yards
797.3 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- Joe Burrow
QB · projected passing yards
1,537.65 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Ja'Marr Chase
WR · projected receiving yards
1,200.2 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 7/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
- features.matchup_expected_epa_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:55Z
- features.projected_player_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.projected_team_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.team_opponent_adjusted_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:15:14Z
- features.weather_features_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:28:45Z
- prediction_package_manifest_v1 · 2026-07-13T12:28:15.885867Z
- raw_nflfastr.teams · 2026-01-25T08:11:23Z
- runtime_schedule_provider · 2026-07-18T14:08:31.933587Z
- warehouse.dim_game · 2026-07-06T07:28:44Z
- warehouse.fact_play · 2026-07-06T07:08:49Z
- warehouse.player_availability · 2026-07-23T00:54:35Z
Section limits: current coach identity unavailable, forecast window not open seasonal outlook, future league reporting window, no completed meetings in lookback
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Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
- TB moneyline
- +160
- CIN moneyline
- -192
- Spread side
- Team not supplied
- Game total
- 52.5
Reported line +3.5
Market source and as-of time were not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule contract. Model and analyst evidence uses the separately protected Matchup product contract and is shown only after entitlement, environment, freshness, canonical identity, and real-LLM evidence checks pass.
- Canonical game ID
- 2026_01_TB_CIN
- Public identity
- TB at CIN
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported by schedule
- Analysis boundary
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