Scheduled / REG
Season 2026 / Week 1
NO at DET
AwayNew Orleans SaintsOpen team ->at
Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
Ford Field
HomeDetroit LionsOpen team ->Personnel matchup
On-field personnel
New Orleans Saints offense
3WR 1TE
Detroit Lions defense
Base 4-3 D
Historical play-calling
NO
New Orleans Saints
Pass leanPass 55%
Rush 45%
- Pace
- 63.3 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- -0.033
DET
Detroit Lions
Pass leanPass 57%
Rush 43%
- Pace
- 64.7 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.034
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 1 projection
DET holds the projected offensive edge
+0.165EPA/play gap
Preseason model
No 2026 games
-0.086
EPA/play
+0.079
EPA/play
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
DET
+0.285
EPA/play advantage over NO
Recent series
DET 1–0
Series record
+5.0
Avg margin · DET
1 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
moderate · calm wind
72°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
2023–2025
NO
New Orleans Saints
medium sample confidencePass response
+0.002
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
+0.007
EPA/play vs team normal
9 comparable games · 562 offensive plays
DET
Detroit Lions
low sample confidencePass response
+0.077
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
+0.057
EPA/play vs team normal
5 comparable games · 343 offensive plays
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
No current depth-rank-one player carries a non-active roster designation.
Official weekly report
Official Week 1 injury reports are not open yet.
Current roster designations above are not weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels.
Projected focal points
- Tyler Shough
QB · projected passing yards
2,026.4 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Alvin Kamara
RB · projected rushing yards
400.35 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Chris Olave
WR · projected receiving yards
988.55 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · projected rushing yards
1,039.55 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · projected receiving yards
1,190.85 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 7/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
- features.matchup_expected_epa_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:55Z
- features.projected_player_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.projected_team_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.team_opponent_adjusted_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:15:14Z
- features.weather_features_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:28:45Z
- prediction_package_manifest_v1 · 2026-07-13T12:28:15.885867Z
- raw_nflfastr.teams · 2026-01-25T08:11:23Z
- runtime_schedule_provider · 2026-07-18T14:08:31.933587Z
- warehouse.dim_game · 2026-07-06T07:28:44Z
- warehouse.fact_play · 2026-07-06T07:08:49Z
- warehouse.player_availability · 2026-07-23T00:54:35Z
Section limits: current coach identity unavailable, forecast window not open seasonal outlook, future league reporting window
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Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
- NO moneyline
- +260
- DET moneyline
- -325
- Spread side
- Team not supplied
- Game total
- 49.5
Reported line +7
Market source and as-of time were not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule contract. Model and analyst evidence uses the separately protected Matchup product contract and is shown only after entitlement, environment, freshness, canonical identity, and real-LLM evidence checks pass.
- Canonical game ID
- 2026_01_NO_DET
- Public identity
- NO at DET
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported by schedule
- Analysis boundary
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