Scheduled / REG
Season 2026 / Week 1
DEN at KC
AwayDenver BroncosOpen team ->at
Mon, Sep 14, 2026, 8:15 PM EDT
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
HomeKansas City ChiefsOpen team ->Personnel matchup
On-field personnel
Denver Broncos offense
3WR 1TE
Kansas City Chiefs defense
Base 4-3 D
Historical play-calling
DEN
Denver Broncos
Pass leanPass 56%
Rush 44%
- Pace
- 64.1 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.004
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
Pass leanPass 56%
Rush 44%
- Pace
- 63.8 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- -0.011
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 1 projection
DEN holds the projected offensive edge
+0.036EPA/play gap
Preseason model
No 2026 games
+0.012
EPA/play
-0.025
EPA/play
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
KC
+0.071
EPA/play advantage over DEN
Recent series
DEN 4–2
Series record
+8.3
Avg margin · DEN
6 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
warm · calm wind
81°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
2023–2025
DEN
Denver Broncos
medium sample confidencePass response
+0.004
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
+0.008
EPA/play vs team normal
6 comparable games · 382 offensive plays
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
low sample confidencePass response
+0.014
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
+0.009
EPA/play vs team normal
3 comparable games · 205 offensive plays
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
No current depth-rank-one player carries a non-active roster designation.
Official weekly report
Official Week 1 injury reports are not open yet.
Current roster designations above are not weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels.
Projected focal points
- Courtland Sutton
WR · projected receiving yards
826.692 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- Patrick Mahomes
QB · projected passing yards
3,048.95 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Brashard Smith
RB · projected rushing yards
128.35 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Travis Kelce
WR · projected receiving yards
723.35 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 7/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
- features.matchup_expected_epa_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:55Z
- features.projected_player_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.projected_team_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.team_opponent_adjusted_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:15:14Z
- features.weather_features_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:28:45Z
- prediction_package_manifest_v1 · 2026-07-13T12:28:15.885867Z
- raw_nflfastr.teams · 2026-01-25T08:11:23Z
- runtime_schedule_provider · 2026-07-18T14:08:31.933587Z
- warehouse.dim_game · 2026-07-06T07:28:44Z
- warehouse.fact_play · 2026-07-06T07:08:49Z
- warehouse.player_availability · 2026-07-23T00:54:35Z
Section limits: current coach identity unavailable, forecast window not open seasonal outlook, future league reporting window
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Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
- DEN moneyline
- +136
- KC moneyline
- -162
- Spread side
- Team not supplied
- Game total
- 42.5
Reported line +3
Market source and as-of time were not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule contract. Model and analyst evidence uses the separately protected Matchup product contract and is shown only after entitlement, environment, freshness, canonical identity, and real-LLM evidence checks pass.
- Canonical game ID
- 2026_01_DEN_KC
- Public identity
- DEN at KC
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported by schedule
- Analysis boundary
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