Scheduled / REG
Season 2026 / Week 1
BUF at HOU
AwayBuffalo BillsOpen team ->at
Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
Reliant Stadium
HomeHouston TexansOpen team ->Personnel matchup
On-field personnel
Buffalo Bills offense
3WR 1TE
Houston Texans defense
Base 4-3 D
Historical play-calling
BUF
Buffalo Bills
Pass leanPass 57%
Rush 43%
- Pace
- 64.7 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.034
HOU
Houston Texans
Pass leanPass 56%
Rush 44%
- Pace
- 64.1 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.005
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 1 projection
BUF holds the projected offensive edge
+0.078EPA/play gap
Preseason model
No 2026 games
+0.044
EPA/play
-0.034
EPA/play
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
BUF
+0.253
EPA/play advantage over HOU
Recent series
HOU 2–0
Series record
+3.5
Avg margin · HOU
2 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
hot · calm wind
90°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
2023–2025
BUF
Buffalo Bills
sample unavailableNo supported comparable-condition sample.
1 comparable games · 45 offensive plays
HOU
Houston Texans
sample unavailableNo supported comparable-condition sample.
1 comparable games · 79 offensive plays
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
No current depth-rank-one player carries a non-active roster designation.
Official weekly report
Official Week 1 injury reports are not open yet.
Current roster designations above are not weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels.
Projected focal points
- Josh Allen
QB · projected passing yards
3,390.933 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- James Cook
RB · projected rushing yards
1,356.779 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Khalil Shakir
WR · projected receiving yards
676.742 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- C.J. Stroud
QB · projected passing yards
2,977.55 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Woody Marks
RB · projected rushing yards
667.911 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Nico Collins
WR · projected receiving yards
967.3 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 7/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
- features.matchup_expected_epa_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:55Z
- features.projected_player_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.projected_team_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.team_opponent_adjusted_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:15:14Z
- features.weather_features_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:28:45Z
- prediction_package_manifest_v1 · 2026-07-13T12:28:15.885867Z
- raw_nflfastr.teams · 2026-01-25T08:11:23Z
- runtime_schedule_provider · 2026-07-18T14:08:31.933587Z
- warehouse.dim_game · 2026-07-06T07:28:44Z
- warehouse.fact_play · 2026-07-06T07:08:49Z
- warehouse.player_availability · 2026-07-23T00:54:35Z
Section limits: current coach identity unavailable, forecast window not open seasonal outlook, future league reporting window
Season Pass matchup briefing
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Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
- BUF moneyline
- -120
- HOU moneyline
- +100
- Spread side
- Team not supplied
- Game total
- 44.5
Reported line -1.5
Market source and as-of time were not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule contract. Model and analyst evidence uses the separately protected Matchup product contract and is shown only after entitlement, environment, freshness, canonical identity, and real-LLM evidence checks pass.
- Canonical game ID
- 2026_01_BUF_HOU
- Public identity
- BUF at HOU
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported by schedule
- Analysis boundary
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