Scheduled / REG
Season 2026 / Week 1
BAL at IND
AwayBaltimore RavensOpen team ->at
Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
Lucas Oil Stadium
HomeIndianapolis ColtsOpen team ->Personnel matchup
On-field personnel
Baltimore Ravens offense
3WR 1TE
Indianapolis Colts defense
Base 4-3 D
Historical play-calling
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
Pass leanPass 57%
Rush 43%
- Pace
- 64.3 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.013
IND
Indianapolis Colts
Pass leanPass 57%
Rush 43%
- Pace
- 64.6 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.029
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 1 projection
BAL holds the projected offensive edge
+0.081EPA/play gap
Preseason model
No 2026 games
+0.101
EPA/play
+0.020
EPA/play
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
BAL
+0.064
EPA/play advantage over IND
Recent series
IND 1–0
Series record
+3.0
Avg margin · IND
1 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
warm · calm wind
80°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
2023–2025
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
low sample confidencePass response
+0.063
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
-0.054
EPA/play vs team normal
5 comparable games · 271 offensive plays
IND
Indianapolis Colts
low sample confidencePass response
+0.056
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
-0.021
EPA/play vs team normal
3 comparable games · 170 offensive plays
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
No current depth-rank-one player carries a non-active roster designation.
Official weekly report
Official Week 1 injury reports are not open yet.
Current roster designations above are not weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels.
Projected focal points
- Lamar Jackson
QB · projected passing yards
2,166.65 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Derrick Henry
RB · projected rushing yards
1,355.75 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Zay Flowers
WR · projected receiving yards
1,029.35 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- Daniel Jones
QB · projected passing yards
2,635.85 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Jonathan Taylor
RB · projected rushing yards
1,347.25 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Alec Pierce
WR · projected receiving yards
852.55 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 7/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
- features.matchup_expected_epa_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:55Z
- features.projected_player_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.projected_team_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.team_opponent_adjusted_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:15:14Z
- features.weather_features_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:28:45Z
- prediction_package_manifest_v1 · 2026-07-13T12:28:15.885867Z
- raw_nflfastr.teams · 2026-01-25T08:11:23Z
- runtime_schedule_provider · 2026-07-18T14:08:31.933587Z
- warehouse.dim_game · 2026-07-06T07:28:44Z
- warehouse.fact_play · 2026-07-06T07:08:49Z
- warehouse.player_availability · 2026-07-23T00:54:35Z
Section limits: current coach identity unavailable, forecast window not open seasonal outlook, future league reporting window
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Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
- BAL moneyline
- -185
- IND moneyline
- +154
- Spread side
- Team not supplied
- Game total
- 49.5
Reported line -3.5
Market source and as-of time were not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule contract. Model and analyst evidence uses the separately protected Matchup product contract and is shown only after entitlement, environment, freshness, canonical identity, and real-LLM evidence checks pass.
- Canonical game ID
- 2026_01_BAL_IND
- Public identity
- BAL at IND
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported by schedule
- Analysis boundary
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