Scheduled / REG
Season 2026 / Week 1
ATL at PIT
AwayAtlanta FalconsOpen team ->at
Sun, Sep 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
Acrisure Stadium
HomePittsburgh SteelersOpen team ->Personnel matchup
On-field personnel
Atlanta Falcons offense
3WR 1TE
Pittsburgh Steelers defense
Base 3-4 D
Historical play-calling
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
Pass leanPass 55%
Rush 45%
- Pace
- 63.7 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- -0.015
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pass leanPass 56%
Rush 44%
- Pace
- 64.0 plays / game
- Offensive EPA
- +0.002
2025 baseline · projected context
Week 1 projection
PIT holds the projected offensive edge
+0.004EPA/play gap
Preseason model
No 2026 games
+0.010
EPA/play
+0.014
EPA/play
2025 historical baseline
Opponent Stress Test
Strong-opponent edge
ATL
+0.199
EPA/play advantage over PIT
Recent series
PIT 1–0
Series record
+8.0
Avg margin · PIT
1 completed meetings in prior 3 seasons
Weaker opponents
Average opponents
Stronger opponents
Projected weather
warm · calm wind
77°
Historical response
Offense in similar conditions
2023–2025
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
low sample confidencePass response
+0.002
EPA/play vs team normal
Rush response
+0.028
EPA/play vs team normal
5 comparable games · 325 offensive plays
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
sample unavailableNo supported comparable-condition sample.
2 comparable games · 118 offensive plays
Personnel watch
Personnel availability and projected focal points
Current roster designations
No current depth-rank-one player carries a non-active roster designation.
Official weekly report
Official Week 1 injury reports are not open yet.
Current roster designations above are not weekly Out, Questionable, or Doubtful labels.
Projected focal points
- Michael Penix Jr.
QB · projected passing yards
1,684.7 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Bijan Robinson
RB · projected rushing yards
1,256.3 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- Kyle Pitts
WR · projected receiving yards
788.8 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
- Aaron Rodgers
QB · projected passing yards
2,947.8 yds
highest projected passing volume on current roster
- Jaylen Warren
RB · projected rushing yards
850.85 yds
highest projected rushing volume on current roster
- DK Metcalf
WR · projected receiving yards
758.2 yds
highest projected receiving volume on current roster
Coverage: one current-roster QB, RB, and WR projection per team when supported
Intelligence sources and limits
Status partial; source as of 7/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM.
- features.matchup_expected_epa_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:55Z
- features.projected_player_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.projected_team_stats_season_v1 · 2026-07-24T04:22:54Z
- features.team_opponent_adjusted_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:15:14Z
- features.weather_features_v1 · 2026-07-06T07:28:45Z
- prediction_package_manifest_v1 · 2026-07-13T12:28:15.885867Z
- raw_nflfastr.teams · 2026-01-25T08:11:23Z
- runtime_schedule_provider · 2026-07-18T14:08:31.933587Z
- warehouse.dim_game · 2026-07-06T07:28:44Z
- warehouse.fact_play · 2026-07-06T07:08:49Z
- warehouse.player_availability · 2026-07-23T00:54:35Z
Section limits: current coach identity unavailable, forecast window not open seasonal outlook, future league reporting window
Season Pass matchup briefing
Unlock the QuantCup matchup briefing.
Sign in to access the current model outlook and any analyst calls published with Season Pass.
Tale of the tape
Market comparison
Reported lines for context, not a stake or wagering instruction.
- ATL moneyline
- +142
- PIT moneyline
- -170
- Spread side
- Team not supplied
- Game total
- 41.5
Reported line +3
Market source and as-of time were not supplied by the public schedule.
Data and methodology
Team identity and baseline game facts come from the public schedule contract. Model and analyst evidence uses the separately protected Matchup product contract and is shown only after entitlement, environment, freshness, canonical identity, and real-LLM evidence checks pass.
- Canonical game ID
- 2026_01_ATL_PIT
- Public identity
- ATL at PIT
- Product status
- not presented
- Freshness
- not reported by schedule
- Analysis boundary
- Sign in to view detailed matchup analysis. (auth_required)